PV Profile Factories Gradually Shut Down for Holidays, Operating Rate Declines Significantly [SMM Analysis]

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SMM, January 24

PV Aluminum Extrusion:During the week, downstream demand for PV aluminum extrusion showed no improvement. Coupled with aluminum prices fluctuating at high levels, sentiment for purchases among module manufacturers remained moderate.SMM learned that some module manufacturers adopted a wait-and-see approach due to the 20,000-yuan aluminum price, delaying purchases. Relevant suppliers worked overtime before the holiday, providing some support to the operating rate of PV aluminum extrusion. This week, small and medium-sized PV aluminum extrusion plants in east China began to close for the holiday, while large plants remained in production. SMM will continue to monitor downstream demand and company holiday schedules.

Material Prices:During the period (2025.01.20-2025.01.24), the average spot price of aluminum fluctuated at high levels. The weekly average price of SMM A00 was 20,242-20,174 yuan/mt, up 68 yuan/mt WoW, an increase of 0.34%. Overall, cost-side support for aluminum continued to weaken, and aluminum ingots entered the traditional seasonal inventory buildup phase. In the short term, aluminum prices face pressure, with the center shifting downward. After the holiday, key focuses include inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the Chinese New Year and the pace of downstream resumption of work. Aluminum ingot inventory buildup is expected to remain within expectations, with limited downside for aluminum prices. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade around 19,900-20,300 yuan/mt in the week following the holiday, while LME aluminum is expected to trade around 2,530-2,630 US dollars/mt.

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